Recent developments in the Middle East are understandably unsettling. No one can tell you with certainty how this unfolds, particularly if additional countries become involved. As with any shock, the range of potential outcomes has widened materially.
History can be instructive here, though market reactions are rarely intuitive. The table below spans nearly five decades of major geopolitical shocks. The pattern is consistent: once the direction of events becomes clearer, even when outcomes are negative, markets tend to stabilize and re-price toward normal.
This is why we diversify: not to eliminate volatility, but to ensure no single event determines your outcome. The most important variable you control is your reaction.
Methodology: Price-only S&P 500 daily close from YCharts, through 3/2/2026. If an event fell on a non-trading day, the prior trading day close was used. Forward returns are simple cumulative returns over 21, 63, 126, and 252 trading days. “?” indicates insufficient forward data.
Advisory services provided by TFO Wealth Partners, LLC. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are displayed as broad sample representations of certain sectors of the market and are for reference point only and may not be directly comparable to your specific portfolio. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio, nor do indexes represent the results of actual trading. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. There are no assurances that a portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals, and economic conditions, may materially alter the performance of your portfolio. There are no assurances that a portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses.
503cWP – 2026.03
